US mulls military corporation with India to tame Pacific dragon

The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency is expected to bring more favourable factors for India than concerns. When Trump first contested the presidency, his campaign was built on the slogan "America First". This resonated with the American national consciousness and paved the way for his victory. In his second campaign, Trump has continued with the same slogan to rally support. The implications of this approach on U.S. foreign policy, relationships with other countries, and immigrant communities, including Indians in the U.S., remain a subject of interest and concern.

During his first term, Trump's foreign policy prioritized American interests, reducing entanglements in international agreements. He withdrew the U.S. from global commitments like the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal. Additionally, his administration implemented stricter immigration policies, including restrictions on the H-1B visa program, affecting professionals from India and elsewhere. Increased wage requirements for foreign workers and other restrictions impacted many. His tariff policies and higher import duties raised questions about their effects on industries in countries like India that rely on the U.S. market.

However, Trump's second term could open up new opportunities for India, given its strategic importance to the U.S. Immigration, trade, military cooperation, and diplomacy are areas where the relationship may strengthen further.

The U.S. may look to enhance military cooperation with India to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Strengthening the Quad alliance—comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia—remains a key strategy for balancing China's power in the region.

While Trump's policies of increasing import taxes and tariffs might negatively impact India, these measures are likely to target China more significantly. This could lead to an influx of U.S. companies into India, positioning it as a preferred production hub. Economic experts highlight that India could benefit as the U.S. seeks alternatives to Chinese supply chains.

Under Joe Biden's administration, defense and military ties between India and the U.S. have already deepened. Agreements like the GE-HAL deal for jet engine production and collaborations in critical and emerging technologies showcase this growing cooperation. Similarly, major agreements between Indian and U.S. corporations are progressing toward execution. Trump's return to power is expected to bolster such industrial collaborations further.

U.S.-India cooperation in areas such as solar energy, biotechnology, and environmental sustainability is poised to become more vibrant. Apple, for instance, has launched a full-fledged subsidiary, Apple Operations India, to establish a research and development center. Apple has already climbed to the second position in the Indian smartphone market with a 21.6% value share.

The Indian diaspora in the U.S. is considered one of the fastest-growing and most successful communities. As highlighted by Chris Hodges, the U.S. Consul General in Chennai, the remarkable growth in U.S. trade and services since 2014 has been driven significantly by the leadership and efforts of the Indian diaspora.

Trump's "peace through strength" philosophy aligns with global security challenges, particularly for nations like India facing terrorism threats. His friendship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the emotional factors tied to figures like Vice President J.D. Vance, whose wife is of Indian origin, could further strengthen U.S.-India ties.

In conclusion, Trump's potential second term is anticipated to align several geopolitical and economic dynamics in favour of India, fueling optimism in governance and policy circles.

(The author is a former President of FOKANA and the Founding President of NAMAM (USA).)