Nilambur by-election: Official announcement by end of March? CPM to field strong candidate

NILAMBUR: It has been two months since P.V. Anvar resigned as an MLA after distancing himself from the CPI(M). With only a year left for the state assembly elections, political parties are eagerly waiting for the announcement of the Nilambur by-election date. The Chief Electoral Officer has completed all necessary preparations for the bypoll and submitted a report to the Chief Election Commission. The election date is expected to be officially announced by the end of March.

According to election regulations, a bypoll must be held within six months of a legislative assembly seat falling vacant. This implies that the Nilambur seat needs to be filled by July 13. If the by-election is postponed beyond this deadline, the general assembly elections will follow within a few months, sparking speculation on whether this scenario will resemble the 2021 decision to forgo the Chavara and Kuttanad by-elections.

In 2020, Chavara MLA Vijayan Pillai and Kuttanad MLA and former minister Thomas Chandy passed away. Soon after, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns emerged, leading to the cancellation of the bypolls. Political parties then accepted this decision. However, this time, the by-election is seen as a crucial opportunity for political parties to assess the political climate before the general elections.

Following his resignation, P.V. Anvar publicly suggested that the UDF should field V.S. Joy as its candidate, considering the coalition's chances of victory. This was also seen as a move to prevent the Congress from nominating Aryadan Shoukath, whom Anvar had defeated in 2016. The CPI(M) believes this statement could create internal differences within the Congress.

If the UDF selects V.S. Joy as its candidate instead of Aryadan Shoukath, the CPI(M) may consider fielding Shoukath as an independent candidate backed by the Left. However, given that supporting an independent candidate backfired for the CPI(M) in Anvar’s case, the party may opt for a safer choice. In such a scenario, M. Swaraj, a CPI(M) state secretariat member from Nilambur, is likely to be the candidate. Swaraj won from Thrippunithura in 2016 but was narrowly defeated by K. Babu in the 2021 elections.