THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The CPM's surprise decision to field a strong leader like M. Swaraj has dramatically intensified the electoral battle in Nilambur, rendering prior political predictions meaningless. This unexpected decision is being seen as the launchpad for the Left's campaign strategy ahead of the upcoming local body polls and the state assembly elections scheduled ten months from now.
With PV Anvar in a state of indecision, and the Congress and UDF taking a firm stand against accommodating him, the Nilambur contest is shaping up to be a fierce LDF vs UDF showdown. While the BJP's stance remains unclear, they do not appear to be preparing for a serious challenge in the constituency. Both the UDF candidate Aryadan Shoukath and the LDF candidate Swaraj are natives of Nilambur. Anvar, on the other hand, hails from the adjacent Eranad constituency but has represented Nilambur in the last two assembly terms.
The Left sees the by-election as an opportunity to strike back at Anvar for his political flip-flops. A victory in Nilambur would not only be a morale booster but also set the tone for the next two elections. The rejection of V.S. Joy — whom Anvar had proposed — by the UDF leadership has reportedly caused internal wounds in the front. In the 2021 election, Congress candidate V.V. Prakash lost by a narrow margin of 2,700 votes. Family members have blamed this defeat on internal sabotage. The Left believes all these developments could work in their favour.
UDF claims Left is worried
According to the UDF, the CPM’s move to replace its earlier strategy in Palakkad and field a state secretariat member reflects its nervousness about the strong challenge posed by them. Aryadan Shoukath has strong local credentials, having served as president of the Nilambur gram panchayat and as the first chairman of the Nilambur municipality. As a filmmaker and the son of the veteran leader Aryadan Mohammed, Shoukath also carries a legacy factor. With PV Anvar’s individual influence still lingering, the UDF hopes these factors will tip the scales in their favour.
UDF eyes return to familiar territory
Despite being held by the Left through PV Anvar in the past two elections, the Nilambur constituency remains emotionally tied to the UDF. In the first election held in 1965, CPIM's K. Kunjali defeated Aryadan Mohammed. Kunjali repeated his victory in 1967. After Kunjali was shot dead, a by-election in 1970 saw Congress member M.P. Gangadharan win the seat. Aryadan Mohammed secured his first win in 1977. In 1980, Congress (U) candidate C. Haridas, backed by the Left, defeated Congress’s T.K. Hamza. Aryadan Mohammed returned victorious in the following by-election as the Congress (U) candidate. In 1982, when T.K. Hamza joined the Left, he defeated Aryadan. However, from 1987 to 2011, Aryadan won six consecutive elections, solidifying his stronghold in Nilambur.