Post poll survey of CPPR predicts another term for LDF; Pinarayi most popular Chief Minister

KOCHI: Centre for Public Policy research has conducted a post-poll survey between the 10th and 20th of April, 2021 in 14 selected constituencies scattered across the state of Kerala. A sample of size of around 2700 has been collected and the key points from the study are as follows :

41.7 % of the respondents opted for LDF to form the next government, 41.6% of the respondents opted for UDF and 12.3% of the respondents supported NDA.

59% of the respondents had made up their mind on whom to vote for well before the campaign started and 22% of the respondents when the candidates were announced.

85% of the respondents opined that their decision on whom to vote for is not influenced by husband/wife, father/mother/any relatives or any community leader.

According to the voters, Pinarayi Vijayan and Oommen Chandi are the 2 main contenders for next the Chief Minister. 38% of the voters want Pinarayi Vijaya as their next CM followed by Oommen Chandi (31%).

The 4 factors that influenced voters on whom to vote were Party (50%), MLA candidate (24%), Performance of LDF Government (9%), Chief Minister Candidates(8%).

Out of the total respondents, except the first time voters, 44% of the voters voted for UDF in the 2016 state assembly election, followed by 39% for LDF.

46% of the female respondents and 39% of the male respondents voted for LDF this time, meanwhile, 37% of the female and 44% of the male respondents voted for UDF. In the case of NDA it is 11% and 13% respectively.

50% of the respondents opined that measures like food kits, free COVID treatment, welfare pensions etc had an impact on the elections.

How various Hindu communities will vote?

Hindu General (Nair, Brahmin etc) - 52% - well before the campaign and 28% when the candidates are announced and 13% - during the campaign.

Hindu OBC(Ezhava, Thiyya, Viswakarma etc) - 62% - well before the campaign and 25% - when the candidates are announced and 8% - during the campaign

SC/ST - 38% - well before the campaign, 37%- when the candidates are announced, 15% - during the campaign.

Christian - 65% - well before the campaign, 16% - when the candidates are announced, 16% - during the campaign.

Muslim - 34%- well before the campaign started, 34% - when the candidates are announced, and 20% during the campaign.

Impact of food kits, free covid treatment and welfare pensions

Hindu General - 37% opined that it will impact elections and 40% said there won't be any impact (rest of the responses are it may impact)

Hindu OBC - 55% opined that it will impact and 22% said that it won't be impacting the elections.

SC/ST - 55% said it will impact and 21% said it won't impact.

Christian- 49% said it will impact, 18% it won’t impact and 32% said it may impact.

Muslim - 53% said it will impact and 24% said it won’t have an impact on the elections.

What mattered the most while deciding whom to vote for based on income categorisation.

2.5 to 5 lac: 46% based on the party and 27% based on the MLA candidate

5 to 10 lac: 20% based on the party, 27% based on the MLA candidate and 26% based on the performance of the LDF government

Above 10 lac - 60% party, 20% MLA candidate, 10% CM candidate

Below 1 lac - 55% party, 22% MLA candidate, 10% CM candidate

Below 2.5 lac - 55% party, 22% - MLA candidate, 9% CM candidate.

32% of the voters think there was a very high impact on elections due to Sabarimala women entry. 65% of the high impacters are Male. The trend is the same for the High impact category which amounts to 15% of the voters. 22% high impacters are female

Gold smuggling: 35% total | 27.9% of the women think that chance of it impacting elections is very high and 37.9% of the male respondents thinks it as very high impacter for the election

Deep sea trawling issue:19 %

17.6 % of the women respondents - very high

20% of the male respondents - very high

Kayamkulam + Kollam (coastal constituencies) - 38% of the respondents deep-sea trawling very high impactor, in that 58% are male and 39% are female.

Vote shift in 2016 Vs 2021

LDF - 84.91% of those who voted for LDF in 2016 continued to support LDF even in 2021, 11.08% shifted to UDF and 2.01% to NDA.

UDF - 80.91% of those who voted for UDF in 2016 continued to support UDF in 2021 also, meanwhile, 8,74% shifted to LDF and 7.74% shifted to NDA.

NDA - 91,78% of those who voted for NDA continued to support NDA in 2021, 3,65% shifted to UDF and 3.20% shifted to LDF