If these two factors are not considered, then the exit poll results may go wrong

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Most of the exit poll results predict another term for the LDF government might be true. Election results are usually executed in two manner—the academic type is one and the media type is second. Both require due diligence. More danger is involved in the media type surveys. If political intentions are involved in it, then it may even affect the end results. If untrained personnel are used for surveys, then also the same will happen. The peculiarities of the questionnaire, the time when elections are carried out all such factors will affect the survey’s outcomes. As all national media outlets have predicted another term for LDF, chances for a second term is higher. The surveys which have a sample size of 200 voters among the two lakh voters in the state, may not produce the true result. At the same time, surveys based on the entire state have higher chances to predict the results correctly.

Using surveys to predict poll results is not a new thing, surveys are being used to forecast election results for the past 80 years. The pioneers of the exit poll, pre-poll surveys are the chief of Indian Institute of Public Opinion, William Decosta and Prof Rajani Kothari of the Centre for the Study of Developing societies. The first election survey in Kerala was conducted in 1965. The survey conducted by Rajani Kothari and Prof. V K Sukumaran Nair, head of the political science department, Kerala University was scientific and empirical in nature and was based on facts. Later in 1996, media persons like Pranoy Roy and others started conducting surveys. In the subsequent years the trends of conducting surveys before elections continued. Some had gone wrong and some had gone right.