THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A recent study has warned that the COVID-19 crisis in Kerala can worsen if the public continues to violate lockdown restrictions in the state. The study, which discusses the COVID-19 situation in the state for the next 100 days, notes that the number of COVID-19 cases in the state is likely to reach 1 lakh in 7 months if 1 patient transmits the disease to 1.15 persons. If the transmission rate of a person increases to 1.45, the number of cases will become 2 lakh within the next 6 months, it says.

It must be noted that over 1 lakh expats are expected to return to the state within the next month. There will be a further increase in the number of people returning to the state once when public transport is reopened. Of the active cases, the number of COVID patients who had returned to state from outside is 969, while the number of persons who contracted the disease through contact is 120.

Considering the current rate of COVID cases, the number of cases reported per day might increase exponentially. The study further states that by August, around 18,000 expats might test positive for the coronavirus. The study also states that there might be an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases among health workers, police, volunteers etc in the next 100 days.

If the transmission rate of a person goes upto 1.45, then the number of COVID-19 cases in the state will reach 25,403 by the end of September. It warns that people must remain on high alert to ensure that the transmission rate does not go up. It must be noted that while a healthy person might experience only 0.75% COVID-19 symptoms, elderly people and children might experience 5% COVID symptoms.

If the number of COVID-19 cases goes on to increase exponentially, it also means that there will be a shortage of treatment facilities. In order to avoid such a situation, authorities have to take necessary steps such as:

1) Strict quarantine
2) Identify those who contracted the disease through contact
3) Increase the number of tests
4) Intensify 'Break the Chain' campaign
5) Reverse quarantine must be made effective