THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Mani C Kappan's entry into the UDF was facilitated by the CPM state leadership's claim that there was no need to keep the NCP in the front. Though there was an impression that NCP’s complaints would be addressed and the party would be retained in LDF last week when CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury joined the discussion convened by Sharad Pawar with leaders of Kerala, Praful Patel’s phone call to Pinarayi Vijayan changed the scenario. Ever since Jose K Mani and the LJD joined the LDF, seat-sharing has been tough for the CPM. This is the reason why the CPM said from the beginning that all parties will have to compromise.

CPM contested in 90 seats in the assembly elections in 2016 and the CPI in 27 seats. All other parties contested only five or fewer seats. Seat sharing was also not a big issue as there were not many big parties. The Kerala Congress (M) contested in 15 seats in the UDF. The LDF will have to give at least ten seats to Jose K Mani this time. The LJD contested in seven seats in the UDF. They demand five seats. The CPM is in a position to find at least 15 seats for new constituents.

The NCP is not a decisive force in the LDF. The party which contested in nine seats in 2001 was given four seats in the last two elections. This time after Pala by polls, NCP won in three of the four seats. Meantime, CPM leaders and cadres are of the view that there is no harm in giving up NCP for Jose K Mani. The biggest problem for the NCP is that it does not claim an accurate vote bank. Therefore, they cannot put much pressure on the Left Front.

NCP’s main victory is only in Kuttanad. It is considered as a personal success of Thomas Chandy. The truth is that the NCP is not an influential force in any of the other seats. According to the CPM, Mani C Kappan's victory in the Pala by-election was not due to NCP votes or Kappan's personal influence. The CPM believes that Jose K Mani and P J Joseph group squabbles and the strong campaigning of the LDF were the reasons for Kappan's victory at that time.

The CPM is of the belief that even if Kappan goes to UDF, there will be no major crisis in Pala this time. The CPM assess that even if Kappan becomes the opposition candidate, they will easily win with the votes of Jose K Mani and the traditional Left votes. In the present scenario, if the NCP goes to the UDF as a whole, it can be projected that the LDF will gain four seats. This will also help to ease some of the problems with seat allocation. Even if a section led by A K Saseendran stays in the LDF, it will be enough to give them a seat.

Elathur, Pala and Kuttanad are presently NCP's sitting seats. Of these, Elathur is the stronghold of the CPM. Kuttanad and Pala are the strongholds of the Kerala Congress. With the arrival of Jose K Mani, the Left Front is confident of retaining Kuttanad and Pala even without the NCP. Kottakkal was the fourth constituency where the NCP contested last time. Kottayam is a constituency where the Left has no chance of victory.