THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Indications are that communal equation will be crucial in the assembly elections. Studies show that changes in the Nair-Ezhava votes and the Muslim-Christian votes of the Hindu community will determine the change of government.

According to a study by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the BJP has a strong influence in the Nair community. This was reported by some English dailies based on studies, including CSDS and post-poll surveys.

The NDA is gradually increasing its vote share in the elections held in the state. In 2016, the NDA got 33 % of Nair votes and in the Lok Sabha elections it increased to 43 %. They were able to increase the votes of Ezhava from 17 to 21 %.

Meantime, the NDA lost minority votes of the Christian religion. When they garnered 9% of Christian votes in 2016 it shrunk to 2% in 2019. The BJP is presently trying to garner maximum number of Christian votes by raising controversial issues including Love Jihad.

The LDF secured 45% of Nair votes in the Lok Sabha polls in 2016. However, it plummeted to 20% in the Lok Sabha polls in 2019. The UDF secured 35% of Nair votes in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 from the 20% obtained in 2016.

The Supreme Court related to women entry in Sabarimala and the ensuing protests helped the BJP. There was a situation where the CPM had to lose the traditional Nair votes. However, there has been no significant leakage of Ezhava votes. In 2016, the LDF got 49 per cent of Ezhava votes and 45 % in 2019. The NDA secured 17 and 21 % of the votes in these elections.

In the Lok Sabha elections, there was a rift in the Muslim-Christian vote bank of the LDF. In 2016, they received 35 % of the Christian votes but in 2019 it fell to 25 %. The Muslim vote fell by 4%. 34% in 2016 and 30% in 2019. This benefited the UDF.

The UDF got only 51 % of votes from Christian factions in 2016 but in 2019 it rose to 70 per cent. The Muslim vote increased from 58 to 65 %.