THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: If the exit poll surveys turn true, the congress in the state and national levels will face a major disaster. The defeat will pave the way for a change of leadership in the Congress at the state level. If faced a debacle, many senior leaders will resign and disappear from the forefront of state politics before the call for resignation is raised.

KPCC chief Mullappally Ramachandran, opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala and senior leader Oommen Chandy will have to step down from the forefront of the state Congress if there is no change of government which happens in every five years. If so, the youth will lead the Congress.

Will that happen?
If those including V D Satheesan and Shafi Parampil win without the UDF coming to power, the key position will go into their hands. If the LDF retains power, then there is no doubt that the opposition leadership post will go to K Muraleedharan if he wins in Nemom. If the predictions of some national media turn true that the LDF will cross the 100 mark, the league will then turn one of the largest coalition party in the opposition. In that case, the Congress will face a miserable condition of having to give up the opposition leader post to Kunhalikutty. Apart from all this, it will take a long time for the Congress to solve the group squabbles in the name of defeat.

Crisis for high command
If no rule is obtained in Kerala, it will be a major setback for the Congress national leadership. The opposition leaders' group which firmly opposed the high command, will intensify its outcry for organisational elections. If cannot assume power in Kerala, things will change where there is no Congress-ruled state in South India. The state where Rahul Gandhi is MP and the state of K C Venugopal, the general secretary in charge of the organization, is a matter of pride for the Gandhi family and the national leadership.

Rahul wave

The high command camp has been quiet since the polls came out. According to party sources, if the campaign was led only by the leaders of Kerala, a major defeat would have been sure. There was a strong fight with the arrival of Rahul and Priyanka. The leaders believed that even if they win, it will not be with a good majority. There will be an unexpected victory in some seats. Alappuzha and Kollam are the most promising districts.

The preliminary conclusion is that Rahul Factor, who slammed the Sabarimala issue in the Lok Sabha elections, was not seen this time. There was a general feeling that the Left Front will retain power in Kerala. National leaders said the Rahul factor alone was not enough to overcome it.

Anti-Pinarayi did not work out
Things similar to Chowkidar Chor Hai campaign raised by the Congress in 2019 Lok Sabha elections worked in Kerala this time. Anti-Pinarayi and the campaign that he is a thief was personal. The Congressmen themselves said that this leader-centric campaign has given Pinarayi more acceptance instead of confronting the CPM. After the floods and Covid, Pinarayi had a good image in the society.

Cannot afford it
The crisis in the UDF is whether the constituent parties, including the Muslim League, will be willing to remain in opposition for another five years. Ten years without governance in the Centre and in Kerala will not go hand in hand with the regular politics of the Congress or the UDF. Other leaders are getting a clear indication after P C Chacko and others joined the Left. There will be an influx of activists and leaders into the BJP.