Political observer advocate Jayasankar said UDF candidate Uma Thomas is likely to get a majority of more than 20,000 votes in the Thrikkakara bypolls. If a normal race was held, she will win by a majority of more than 20,000 votes. However, the possibility of a coup exists in the constituency, he said.

‘If the BJP can retain the last votes garnered, then it is a big deal. The UDF has a clear upper hand. If the race was normal, then Uma Thomas will win by a majority of more than 20,000 votes. Reason is the candidate’s charisma. The other is that Thrikkakara is a traditional UDF constituency. Another reason is the emotional by-election that had taken place after the death of P T Thomas. Considering all this, Uma Thomas should win by at least 25,000 votes.

Another thing is that Pinarayi Vijayan, 20 ministers and 60 MLAs had camped in Thrikkakara constituency and campaigned. Such campaigning has a huge impact. A minister coming to your house and asking ‘What do you want, do you need electricity, want to repair the roads, want high mass light,’ has a huge impact.

Oommen Chandy had done exactly the opposite in Aruvikkara and Piravom. Moreover, the campaign was like a Nair Minister in the house of Nairs, Ezhava Minister in the house of Ezhavas, Muhammad Riyaz in the houses of rich, Abdur Rehman in the houses of the common people and A N Shamseer in the houses of auto drivers. If this works out, the possibility of a coup cannot be ruled out.