There was a time when the Middle Eastern countries were the dreamland of Malayalis. The first signs of change and development began to appear in Kerala after expats, who crossed the sea in search of a better life, sent back their earnings. However, the figures released by the state planning board through the economic review report reveal the concern of these expatriates returning home en masse and the crises this will create in the country's economy.

The information in the report states that Kerala, which once ranked first in expatriate income, is now behind Maharashtra. It cannot be assumed that this is only a continuation of the COVID-19-induced crisis. Because even before Covid, a study report by the Reserve Bank had already pointed out the decrease in the number of Malays going to the Middle East countries to seek employment. According to this report, in 2015, the number of people who obtained immigration clearance to the Gulf countries was 7.6 million, but four years later, in 2019, it decreased to just 3.5 million. It should be remembered that the Covid outbreak was a year later. The year after Covid, it dropped to just 90,000!

The total annual income of expatriates reaching the country is Rs 7 lakh crores. According to the Economic Review Report of Kerala, 35 percent of this is now going to Maharashtra. From 16.7 percent in 2016-17, Maharashtra reached 35 percent in 2020-21. Kerala, on the other hand, saw a drop from 19 percent of non-resident income to 10.2 percent during the same period. The economic review report also points out that Malayali migration to Europe and the United States, where salaries are higher than those in the Middle East countries, has decreased. Meanwhile, there has been a major decline in salary rates in the Middle East region over the last ten years. Both these factors have contributed to the reduction in the flow of expatriate remittances to Kerala.

According to the figures released by NORKA, a total of 15 lakh Malayalees have returned to Kerala from various countries due to job loss and other reasons after Covid. More than 60 percent of this return was from the UAE alone. Even for those who stay in the Middle countries, there has been a big drop in the level of remittances they sent back home before Covid. The impact of all this is reflected in the financial review report of the planning board. The return of expatriates and the decline in expatriate income is the same as the economic crisis caused by their families, or even more serious, the stress this creates in Kerala's economy. This will become a new challenge for the state government which is suffering from financial crunch due to other reasons.

Regarding the rehabilitation of the returned expatriates, we have not been able to fully implement any of the announced plans. Current statistics on schemes aimed at the welfare of expatriates, including assistance to start up industrial enterprises in the country, are not available. It is not too late to study the return of expatriates, the huge decline in expatriate income, the welfare of returning expatriates and explore alternative ways to bridge the gap in the income structure of the state. We can expect some proposals and announcements in this direction in the state budget to be presented on Monday.