THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Until two weeks ago, it was unbearably hot in Kerala. Now, the state is experiencing severe flooding due to heavy rains. El Niño caused extreme heat, and there are concerns that the coming La Niña will worsen the flooding. Kerala struggles with even moderate summer rains, so coping with La Niña will be challenging.

El Niño has weakened, and La Niña is strengthening. The International Meteorological Agency finds La Niña hard to predict, but heavy monsoon rains are expected from June to September. This year's monsoon is predicted to be stronger than last year's if La Niña forms by August.

The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that El Niño is weakening, indicating no link between current rains and La Niña. However, if La Niña strengthens, conditions could worsen.

In 2023, India received 820 mm of rain. If El Niño continues into early 2024, it will be a warm year, but if La Niña forms, temperatures will drop. Continued high temperatures could lead to severe cyclones and heavy rains.

Coastal states like Kerala should prepare for high temperatures. Rains are expected due to the weakening El Niño. Experts also predict that the Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña will make the monsoon arrive earlier than usual, with heavier rainfall expected.