PALAKKAD: Despite a dip in voter turnout, all three fronts are optimistic about tasting victory in the by-polls. In 2021, UDF won the constituency by a slender margin of just 3000 votes. The BJP is counting on capturing the constituency in which E Sreedharan trailed in the last election. Meanwhile, the congress camp expects Rahul to win but is unsure of the leader repeating Shafi’s performance.

On another note, CPM is happy with their well-organized campaigning and expects P Sarin to do a coup and wrest power in the constituency ending the 13-year drought. The constituency includes Palakkad Municipal Corporation, Pirayiri, Mathur and Kannadi gram panchayats. The 52-wards municipal corporation has more than half of the votes in the constituency. In 2021, Piriyari stood behind Shafi giving him a 6000 vote lead. It thus alerts the congress camp that the voter turnout here has dipped to 6 per cent than in the last election.

The decrease in votes in rural areas and better polling in municipalities gives hope to BJP. When Shafi Parambi and E Sreedharan faced each other, BJP came front in Palakkad city with a lead of 6238 votes. Out of 52 wards, 28 have BJP councillors. UDF has 18 councillors and LDF has six. The BJP, which had a lead of more than 6000 votes in 2021, got a lead of just 497 votes from the city area when Krishnakumar contested for the Lok Sabha months ago.

However, congress believes it would be impossible for Krishnakumar to repeat E Sreedharan’s performance in the city area. But, it serves as a stark reminder that, despite a congress wave, BJP took the lead in the Palakkad city in LS polls. BJP can win the constituency only if it gets a lead of 7000-8000 votes in the urban area. Sarin’s performance in the urban area will also decide the fate of the other two parties.