PALAKKAD: Raising many eyebrows, BJP is trailing back in its strongholds in Palakkad just after the counting ended for round four in the by-polls. UDF candidate Rahul Mamkootathil has seeped into the saffron bastions draining BJP of its loyal vote base.

Even the UDF camp has been shocked by Rahul’s lead of more than 1200 votes in the municipality area, which has perennially been the BJP’s strong base. In the 2021 elections, after counting three rounds, the then-BJP candidate E Sreedharan was leading by 4000 votes. Krishnakumar took the lead in the first two rounds but could not make the breakthrough the party was hoping for in the next rounds.

This trend will give headaches for the BJP leadership since the party has been banking on the municipality votes to ensure a super thriller in the constituency. However, with such a trend continuing, many analysts predict a thumping victory for Rahul in the cards. For the BJP to be in the picture in Palakkad, the party will need a lead of at least 10,000 by the round of 10. With this trend continuing, such a chance remains bleak. After round 10, the counting will start in the congress stronghold of Pirayiri panchayat, where in 2021, Shafi Parambil got a lead of 6000 votes.

But if the BJP's lead remains less than 10,000 by round 10, Congress is expected to start celebrating and may declare its victory too early.