MALAPPURAM: The Nilambur Assembly by-election witnessed an impressive voter turnout of 73.26%, following over two weeks of intense campaigning. Despite adverse weather conditions, voter participation remained strong, though slightly lower than the 76.60% recorded during the 2021 assembly election.

Both the ruling LDF and opposition UDF have claimed an upper hand, citing high polling figures in the panchayats they control. However, election analysts maintain that the current voting pattern does not clearly indicate a favourable trend for any single front.

The LDF governs the Nilambur Municipality and the Pothukallu and Amarambalam panchayats, while the UDF controls Vazhikkadavu, Chunkathara, Edakkara, Moothadam, and Karulai. Amarambalam and Moothadam are considered strongholds of the LDF and UDF respectively, while other regions remain largely balanced between the two fronts.

The Congress is confident that there has been no significant erosion of its vote base. It is believed that Anvar, an independent candidate, may have attracted some protest votes from those dissatisfied with Aryadan Shoukath. However, the UDF camp remains optimistic, asserting that this would not significantly impact the final outcome.

The CPM, assessing the contest as closely fought, is hopeful of replicating its 2021 victory. Internal reports suggest that the party has successfully consolidated its core support base. Nevertheless, there are concerns within the LDF about a potential shift of some loyal votes towards Anvar.

Anvar, for his part, has claimed he will secure 75,000 votes, estimating that 25% will come from LDF voters and 35% from UDF supporters.

Meanwhile, the NDA is expecting to secure between 12,000 and 15,000 votes.

For comparison, only 61.46% voter turnout was recorded in the recent Wayanad Lok Sabha by-election, contested by Priyanka Gandhi. The Nilambur by-election, held just seven months later, shows a notable increase of over 10% in turnout. Of the 16 elections held in Nilambur constituency so far, voter turnout has crossed 80% only three times. The highest ever turnout was 83.15% in 1987.