MALAPPURAM: With a strong turnout recorded in the Nilambur by-election, political fronts are expressing optimism about their chances. The final polling percentage stood at 75.27%, marginally lower than the 2021 figure. Of the 2,32,057 registered voters, 1,74,667 cast their votes. Counting will be held on Monday at Chungathara Marthoma Higher Secondary School.

Independent candidate P.V. Anvar is expected to secure between 5% and 10% of the vote share, according to early estimates by political observers. Some even suggest that he could finish in third place.

The United Democratic Front (UDF) is confident of a clear win, estimating a lead of 12,000 to 15,000 votes for its candidate Aryadan Shoukath. The alliance believes that if anti-incumbency sentiments have a strong impact, the margin could stretch to over 20,000 votes. UDF leaders say Congress and IUML votes were mobilised effectively. While a close contest is expected in Nilambur municipality, the UDF anticipates leads in the Vazhikkadavu, Moothedam, Pothukallu, Edakkara, Chungathara, and Karulai panchayats. However, they acknowledge a possible setback in Amarambalam. UDF leaders also claim that their association with the Welfare Party did not significantly affect voter sentiment.

The Left Democratic Front (LDF), meanwhile, remains hopeful of a narrow victory, expecting a margin of under 2,000 votes. In the previous election, Anvar won with a margin of 2,700 votes. The LDF foresees UDF gains in some areas but expects to take the lead in Pothukallu, Karulai, Amarambalam, and Nilambur municipality. They believe discontent with the UDF candidate may have resulted in protest votes. LDF leaders also believe that UDF’s alliance with the Welfare Party may have caused a split in minority votes, which could impact the final outcome.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which earlier hoped to bag up to 15,000 votes, now aims to retain the 8,500 votes it secured in 2021.

Meanwhile, Anvar’s supporters claim he could secure between 20,000 and 25,000 votes. However, it has been noted that his representation at polling booths was limited, with only a few having his agents present.