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Saturday, 15 February 2025 12.10 AM IST

Bangladesh unrest: Strategic failure, ethnic tensions and path to regional cooperation

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The political upheaval in Bangladesh, culminating in Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation in 2024 following a student-led uprising, has destabilised the country and also strained its relationship with neighbouring India. The rise of an interim government under Muhammad Yunus has presented new opportunities, but the ongoing atrocities and ethnic cleansing of minorities, particularly Hindus, have compounded the crisis. These events have strained the already fragile cooperation between India and Bangladesh. As Bangladesh navigates this tumultuous period, the path toward rebuilding bilateral ties depends on addressing the political instability and the historical grievances surrounding minority rights.

Political Uncertainty and Governance Challenges The political crisis in Bangladesh began with widespread protests against Prime Minister Hasina's administration, which escalated into a national movement calling for democratic reforms and an end to authoritarian rule. Initially sparked by demands for changes in the public sector employment quota, the protests grew into a broader call for political freedom and transparency. This unrest eventually led to Hasina’s ouster and the installation of an interim government under Muhammad Yunus.

Yunus, known for his work in micro-finance and global humanitarian efforts, faces the challenge of leading a deeply divided country. His administration is tasked with stabilising Bangladesh, ensuring free and fair elections, and addressing the people's grievances. However, the political landscape remains volatile, and the interim government’s ability to foster national reconciliation and political stability remains uncertain.

Ethnic and Religious Persecution: Hindus and Other Minorities A major issue complicating the political and social fabric of Bangladesh is the persecution of religious minorities, especially Hindus. Historical violence against Hindus, dating back to the 1947 Partition and the 1971 Liberation War, continues to reverberate today. The 1971 war itself saw a disproportionate share of atrocities committed against Hindus, with millions killed, displaced, or subjected to violence. Unfortunately, this history of violence and land dispossession has continued in recent years.

The 2021 Durga Puja violence serves as a chilling example. During the celebrations, widespread attacks on temples and Hindu houses happened; all incited by mere social media rumours. Reports suggest that at least 20 temples were attacked, and many families were forced to flee. More recently, incidents of land grabbing and the forced displacement of Hindus from their homes have become all too common, particularly in rural areas of Bangladesh.

Despite constitutional guarantees of equality and religious freedom, Hindus and other minorities continue to face systemic discrimination. The political and economic marginalisation of these groups not only violates their rights but also exacerbates social divisions, making it difficult for Bangladesh to build a truly inclusive society.

Economic Crisis: Specific Challenges and Statistics Bangladesh is also facing an acute economic crisis, exacerbated by political instability. The country’s economy, which has been growing rapidly in recent years, has been severely impacted by the twin crises of political unrest and the global economic slowdown. Unemployment has surged to 10.5% in 2024, a sharp increase from 4.2% in 2023. The country’s manufacturing sector, which employs millions, has been particularly hard-hit by the liquidity crisis. Thousands of small and medium enterprises have shut down, and large factories have either reduced operations or closed completely.

Inflation has become a significant problem, with the consumer price index reaching 9.4% in 2024, driven largely by skyrocketing food and energy prices. This is a sharp increase from 5.3% in 2023, and it has placed immense pressure on Bangladesh’s poor and middle-class families. The rise in energy prices has been especially difficult, as Bangladesh faces energy shortages due to disputes over power imports from India.

The electricity dispute with India, particularly with Adani Power, has resulted in a 30% reduction in electricity imports to Bangladesh, causing widespread power outages and hampering industrial productivity. As a result, the Bangladesh government has been forced to rely on costly alternatives like fuel oil to meet energy demands, further straining its finances.

Role of International Actors: Geopolitical Implications The political and economic instability in Bangladesh also draws the attention of major international actors, each with its own interests in the region.

  • China: Over the past decade, China has significantly increased its influence in Bangladesh, especially through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has invested heavily in infrastructure, including railways, bridges, and power plants, making its presence felt as a key player in Bangladesh’s economic future. However, these investments come with significant risks, particularly regarding debt sustainability. Bangladesh’s increasing reliance on Chinese loans has led to concerns about mounting debt and potential Chinese control over critical infrastructure, a concern that India closely monitors.
  • Pakistan: Pakistan’s influence in Bangladesh, particularly through the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), should raise alarm bells in India. Reports suggest that ISI has cultivated ties with jihadist groups operating within Bangladesh, using the porous border to facilitate the flow of weapons, explosives, and narcotics. This is a direct security concern for India since ISI can destabilise Bangladesh and turn it into a breeding ground for terrorism aimed at India.
  • The United States and International Figures: Bangladesh’s internal instability has also attracted attention from international actors like the United States and individuals like George Soros and Hillary Clinton, good friends of Yunus. These figures have played a significant role in shaping Bangladesh’s economic policies, particularly in the areas of microfinance and social development. However, their influence has raised concerns about the extent of foreign interference in Bangladesh’s sovereignty. The increasing influence of these international figures has made Bangladesh’s political landscape more complex, as foreign interests compete with local political agendas.

India’s Intelligence and Diplomatic Response: Was There a Missed Opportunity? One of the critical questions emerging from Bangladesh's political crisis is whether India’s intelligence agencies were adequately prepared for the scale and intensity of the unrest. India’s intelligence agencies, particularly RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) and IB (Intelligence Bureau), are responsible for monitoring developments in Bangladesh due to the historical, cultural, and strategic ties between the two nations. However, the sudden eruption of protests and the subsequent regime change seem to have caught Indian agencies off guard.

While political instability in neighbouring countries is always difficult to predict, there seems to have been a gap in assessing the rising discontent within Bangladesh. The growing dissatisfaction with Hasina's administration was likely underestimated, and the role of student-led protests, initially seen as localized unrest, might not have been fully captured in Indian intelligence assessments. Additionally, the international influence in Bangladesh, particularly from figures with global ties like Yunus, may have been overlooked in India's analysis, which has implications for the diplomatic response to the crisis.

India’s intelligence community, despite its success in monitoring external threats, must now adapt to the increasing complexity of Bangladesh's internal politics. The growing external influence in Bangladesh, particularly from China and Pakistan, calls for a more nuanced and proactive approach to monitoring both domestic political movements and the role of international stakeholders.

  • The Role of India and Regional Allies: A Unified International Approach Given the growing ethnic violence and the continued persecution of religious minorities in Bangladesh, India must take a more active role in seeking international support to address this issue. India’s deep cultural and historical ties with Bangladesh, particularly with the Hindu minority, place it in a unique position to advocate for minority rights and religious freedom. However, given the international dimensions of the issue, a broader coalition of like-minded nations, including key regional players like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), could help amplify the message and increase diplomatic pressure on the Bangladeshi government.
  • • UAE and KSA as Strategic Allies: Both the UAE and KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) have significant influence within the broader Muslim world, including in Bangladesh. Their involvement would lend critical weight to international efforts to pressure the Bangladeshi government on human rights issues. While these nations may have political and economic interests in Bangladesh, they have also shown interest in fostering peace and stability in the region. Given their leadership in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), an alliance between India, the UAE, KSA, and other regional actors could send a strong message about the need to protect the rights of minorities and uphold secularism as enshrined in Bangladesh's constitution.
  • • Leveraging the United Nations: The United Nations (UN) is an essential platform for addressing human rights violations globally, and India should use its position to garner international support for action on the persecution of minorities in Bangladesh. The UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) and the UN General Assembly can be pivotal in raising awareness about the atrocities and calling for accountability. India can push for resolutions that urge the Bangladeshi government to protect its religious minorities and ensure that all citizens, regardless of faith, can live in peace and security in accordance with Bangladesh’s laws and constitution. The international community must apply diplomatic pressure to bring attention to these abuses, and the UN could serve as a platform for rallying global support to pressure Bangladesh into reform. India, working alongside the UAE, KSA, and other allies, could help coordinate a concerted diplomatic effort to demand that the Bangladeshi government take immediate action to halt the persecution and ensure the protection of minorities.
  • India-Bangladesh Relations: The Path Forward Despite the challenges posed by ethnic and religious persecution and the ongoing economic crisis, there is significant potential for cooperation between India and Bangladesh. India and Bangladesh have historically shared strong ties in terms of trade, energy, and security. India remains Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with trade between the two countries exceeding $10 billion in 2023. India also plays a crucial role in supplying electricity to Bangladesh, which relies on imports from India to meet its energy needs. One of the most critical aspects of India-Bangladesh relations is the Chittagong Port, one of the busiest ports in South Asia. India has been using Chittagong to access global markets, particularly for exports from its northeastern states, including Assam and Tripura. The port is a vital link for India’s Act East Policy, which aims to boost economic relations with Southeast Asia. Any disruption to the functioning of the Chittagong Port due to political instability in Bangladesh would have a direct negative impact on India’s trade and connectivity with Southeast Asia. Furthermore, India’s Look East Policy has long seen Bangladesh as a key partner in regional economic and security cooperation. India and Bangladesh have worked together on counterterrorism efforts, including joint operations to combat insurgent groups in the northeastern Indian states and the Rohingya refugee crisis, where Bangladesh has played a critical role in providing refuge to displaced people.
  • Conclusion: The political, economic, and ethnic challenges facing Bangladesh today are deeply interconnected, and the path forward will require a delicate balance of internal reforms, regional cooperation, and international engagement. While the recent political upheaval has dented cooperation between India and Bangladesh, there is still considerable potential for collaboration on issues such as economic development, energy security, and cultural exchange. India, while cautious about the human rights violations and religious persecution in Bangladesh, must continue to engage diplomatically, supporting the democratic transition while safeguarding its strategic interests. The historical and cultural ties between the two countries provide a foundation for rebuilding cooperation, despite the recent tensions. Both nations must navigate the complexities of religious and ethnic tensions, address economic instability, and promote greater regional security through constructive dialogue and mutual cooperation.
  • In the end, while the atrocities against Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh have deeply strained relations, they also present an opportunity for India to help facilitate reforms that ensure a more inclusive and stable Bangladesh, which will benefit both countries and the wider region.
TAGS: BANGLADESH, POLITICAL, INDIA, HINDUS, RIOTS
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