Who is there to lead LDF now? Crisis awaits CPM, UDF looks safe

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As the first few hours of vote counting in the assembly elections pass, we see the end of a decade-long LDF rule in the state. The UDF candidates are presently leading in more than 90 out of 140 seats. The LDF, which had a majority of 99 seats last time, has now fallen to leads in fewer than 40 seats. It is becoming clear that the future is not very bright for the CPM, which has been directly led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan for a long time. Around 14 ministers, including the chief minister, are trailing in the early rounds. Out of the CPMs own 77 candidates, only a little over 20--including ministers K N Balagopal and Saji Cherian are leading.

The UDF conducted a strong campaign under the leadership of opposition leader V D Satheesan, and these early trends can be seen as the result of that effort. Even before the campaign began, senior leaders like G Sudhakaran, former MLA P K Sasi, and T K Govindan, who had differences with the CPI (M) leadership, moved closer to the Congress. More surprises are coming, V D Satheesan told the media.

Pinarayi Vijayan, who served as party secretary for 18 years since 1998, became chief minister in 2016. Since then, he has been the central leader of the CPM in the state. Party workers saw him as a strong captain who led during crises like Cyclone Ockhi, COVID-19, and floods. However, that strength now appears to be weakening. After such a major defeat, the biggest challenge facing the CPM is the lack of popular leaders.

From A K Gopalan, E M S Namboodiripad, and E K Nayanar to K R Gowri Amma and V S Achuthanandan, the party once had widely popular leaders. Today, while there are many leaders in the CPM, very few combine leadership ability with mass appeal. Among the youth, DYFI state secretary V K Sanoj is leading clearly in his constituency, but few leaders have strong influence beyond party circles.

Young leaders like Sachin Dev, M S Arun Kumar, and V K Prasanth are among the MLAs. The party has also tried several young faces such as former Thiruvananthapuram Mayor Arya Rajendran, Jaick C Thomas, and P M Arsho. However, not many have emerged as top leaders. After setbacks in local body and assembly elections, the CPI (M) urgently needs a leadership group with strong public support to move forward. Building such leadership is the biggest challenge before the party and the front.

On the other hand, the Congress gained strong energy from the Puthuyuga Yatra led by opposition leader V D Satheesan ahead of the elections. One key advantage for the Congress is that it has multiple leaders capable of taking up leadership roles. Even while being mocked over the Chief Ministerial face, names like Ramesh Chennithala, K C Venugopal, and V D Satheesan were all discussed.

Among the youth, Shafi Parambil has emerged as a rising leader in Congress. Since 2011, he has not lost any election he has contested and is considered one of the party’s popular leaders. In 2024, he was entrusted with contesting the Vadakara Lok Sabha seat, resigning from his Palakkad MLA post. Rahul Mamkootathil later retained Palakkad in the by-election. Shafi attractex large crowds wherever he goes, reminiscent of former chief minister Oommen Chandy’s mass appeal. In this election too, large crowds gathered for him, including in Paravur, where the opposition leader contested. It can be assumed that these crowds turned into votes.

Another young leader who rose quickly is P C Vishnunath. Starting through KSU, he became state president of both KSU and Youth Congress, and later held positions like KPCC general secretary and AICC secretary. He was elected to the Assembly from Chengannur in 2006 and 2011, and since 2021 has been representing Kundara.

Chandy Oommen, son of former chief minister Oommen Chandy, is also rapidly rising among the youth leadership. He entered electoral politics through the Puthuppally by-election in 2023 following his father’s death, winning by a huge margin of 37,319 votes. In the present election too, he has secured a clear lead in the early rounds. His calm and controversy-free campaign style has drawn attention. The success of such future-oriented experiments by the UDF, along with the LDF’s relative failure to adapt, is clearly visible in this election.