Malayali expatriates to return home en masse? Repercussions of Iran conflict in Kerala

NEW DELHI: Iran and Israel war seems like an issue that circumscribes just within West Asia. This asinine take will go straight to the gutters, considering the reality of how things are shaping the world. The attack on Iran and the retaliation will have serious effects, even on crores of Malayalees nestled safely in the southern tip of Kerala.

About one crore Indians are working or living in West Asian countries, and the lion’s share of them are Malayalees. If the conflict escalates, they will have to evacuate, leaving behind whatever they have built over the years. Gulf countries prioritizing own citizens in the workforce has already seriously affected the prospects of Keralites. In the meantime, comes the conflict in Iran.

Iran's easy retaliation option is targeting American military bases in the Gulf countries. It is reported that establishments near American military bases are currently partially closed. Workers were sent back to safer locations following warnings. The establishment will reopen only after the threat has passed. Expatriates are afraid that if the situation continues or worsens, they will lose their jobs and salaries.

The Iran conflict will also significantly affect exports from India. Spices, basmati rice, etc., are the most exported products from India to Iran. In the year 2024-25 alone, 8.55 lakh metric tons of basmati rice were exported to Iran. In 2024, 38.72 metric tons of cardamom were exported. It should be noted that Kerala is the largest producer of cardamom in India.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea, playing a significant role in minimising the cost of transporting oil and other goods to our country. Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz as the conflict escalated. About half of the world's oil and natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz. India uses 5.5 million barrels of oil a day. About half of this reaches India through Hormuz. It is still unclear whether India will buy oil from Russia following the US trade deal. The closure of Hormuz could lead to a sharp increase in the prices of petrol and diesel. The increase in oil prices will also lead to an increase in the prices of daily necessities.

The closure of Hormuz will increase the travel distance for cargo ships from India. It is reported that they will have to travel for about 20 days longer than they do now. This may lead to shortages of goods and price increases.