Kanugolu survey: Congress's position is not strong in four districts

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: While the UDF hopes to make major gains and come to power in the upcoming Assembly elections, a survey report says the Congress party’s position is not strong in four districts. According to a survey conducted by election strategist Sunil Kanugolu, the party is unlikely to make significant gains in Thiruvananthapuram, Alappuzha, Thrissur and Palakkad districts.

The survey was conducted based on the UDF's strong performance in the recent local body elections. Even though the Congress leadership has not fully accepted the findings, they also have doubts about their prospects in these four districts. Earlier, Opposition Leader V.D. Satheesan had conducted his own assessment, and a separate study by an event management agency reportedly reached similar conclusions.

The Kanugolu report states that the party has serious organisational weaknesses in Alappuzha and Thrissur. In Alappuzha, which has nine Assembly constituencies, the Congress won only the Haripad seat held by Ramesh Chennithala in the 2021 elections. In Thrissur, which has 13 constituencies, Chalakudy, won by Saneesh Kumar Joseph, is the only seat held by the Congress. In Thiruvananthapuram district, which has 14 constituencies, the party won only the Kovalam seat represented by M. Vincent.

Some party leaders feel that the survey’s assessment of Palakkad may not be entirely correct. In the 2021 Assembly elections, out of the 12 constituencies in Palakkad district, the Muslim League secured Mannarkkad, while the Congress won the Palakkad seat. Looking ahead to the next election, the Congress leadership is optimistic that the UDF can capture Palakkad, Chittur, Mannarkkad and Thrithala. They are also hopeful about their chances in Kongad.

The report says Muslim votes are likely to consolidate in favour of the Congress in many constituencies. However, it suggests that Christian voters may not support the Congress as strongly as expected. The survey predicts that both the LDF and the UDF could secure more than 40 percent of the vote share, while the NDA may get around 15 percent.