Booth-level assessments: LDF confident, UDF claims strong wave

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Political fronts have begun booth-level vote assessments following the elections. Despite intense contests in several constituencies, including those contested by ministers, the CPM believes it will avoid major setbacks. Meanwhile, the Congress and the Muslim League claim that a strong wave is in favour of the UDF.

The CPM Malappuram district leadership has expressed concern that Minister V Abdurahiman may not be able to secure victory in Tirur. However, the party expects to win in Thavanur and Ponnani in Malappuram, though it may lose Tanur.

In Palakkad district, CPM believes it can win around 10 seats, including sitting constituencies, but there is concern about regaining Palakkad and Mannarkkad. In Alappuzha, the party expects a strong performance, though there is uncertainty about whether all party votes were consolidated in Ambalappuzha. If so, H Salam may win by a margin of 5,000 to 10,000 votes.

In Pathanamthitta district, CPM expects to win all five constituencies. In Aranmula, Veena George is expected to win by around 7,000 votes. In Konni, Ranni, Thiruvalla, and Adoor, CPM candidates are also expected to win. In Kottarakkara, Minister K N Balagopal is expected to secure a big victory. Chavara and Kunnathur may be retained with a margin of around 3,000 votes.

On the other hand, the UDF expects major gains in Palakkad district, where its seats could increase from 2 to 7. It claims strong dominance in four constituencies and expects victories in Palakkad, Mannarkkad, Thrithala, and Chittur. Ottapalam may also see an upset victory.

In Ernakulam, the UDF expects dominance, while it predicts a clean sweep in Malappuram and Kasaragod. In Ambalappuzha, G Sudhakaran is expected to win by over 8,000 votes. The UDF candidates in Kayamkulam and Ranni are also likely to win.

The Muslim League leadership estimates that it will secure at least 20 seats, which could go beyond 22 if the UDF wave is strong. The party is confident of winning all 12 seats it is contesting in Malappuram and both seats in Kasaragod. It also hopes to regain seats like Kozhikode South, Thiruvambady, Kunnamangalam, and Kuttiady, and sees chances in Tanur and Kalamassery as well.

LDF will retain power, says CPI
The CPI has predicted that the LDF will retain power in the state with a narrow majority. The party’s state executive committee meeting assessed that CPI could win in 15 constituencies and that the LDF may secure between 72 and 80 seats.

The party noted that there could be setbacks in Thrissur. Tough contests were witnessed in Karunagappally and Muvattupuzha. Ministers K Rajan and G R Anil are expected to win with comfortable margins. Overall, all four CPI ministers are likely to win.

Compared to 2021, the number of seats may decrease in the Malabar region, but no major setbacks are expected in southern and central Kerala. The party also observed that a section of minority voters supported the LDF and that it was able to consolidate Ezhava votes. Tough contests were also reported in Adoor and Chirayinkeezhu, but CPI expects to win both seats.