Nilambur by-election vote counting tomorrow; How can votes in Vazhikkadavu predict the final result?

MALAPPURAM: Who will Nilambur support in the by-election? A clear indication of that will be clear in the first half hour. The votes in Vazhikkadavu panchayat, a UDF stronghold, will be counted first. UDF is expecting a lead of 3,000 votes here. Anvar was the leader here in both the elections in which PV Anvar contested as a Left Independent. In 2016, Anvar had a lead of 2,162 votes here when he contested against Aryadan Shoukath. Anvar won that time with a majority of 11,504 votes. When he contested against VV Prakash in 2021, Anvar got a lead of only 35 votes in Vazhikkadavu. The majority has reduced to 2,700.

Vazhikkadavu is the largest panchayat in Nilambur constituency, has the most voters, and Anvar is expecting the most votes here. This is also the area of ​​influence of the Muslim League. The UDF is estimating that it will get a majority of 12,000 to 15,000 votes if the vote share increases in Vazhikkadavu. The majority could go up to 20,000 if the vote share increases.

Following a complaint that the VVPAT was not working at booth number 2 in Marutha in Vazhikkadavu panchayat, 48 votes polled till then were checked in the presence of political party representatives. When the slips were counted, 42 votes were for the UDF. The UDF camp is more hopeful with the indication that the trend in Vazhikkadavu is favourable.

The second counting of votes will be in Moothedam panchayat, a stronghold of the League. The UDF is estimating a majority of at least 2,500 votes. In the last two elections, when the UDF fell behind, it was in Moothedam panchayat that gave them support. If Vazhikkadavu and Moothedam are lost, the UDF's position will be in jeopardy, and this will strengthen the LDF's estimates of winning by at least 2,000 votes.

Left and right with confidence

The UDF is confident of having a lead in six out of seven panchayats. It is expected to get an advantage in all other places except Karulai. The CPM estimates that it will get an advantage of between 1,000 and 1,300 in Nilambur Municipality and four panchayats.