Nilambur verdict: Swaraj factor and Anvar's relevance

Nilambur was certain to swing to UDF this time, and there were no doubts on that. It all started with former LDF ally P V Anvar jumping ship after crying foul over CM Pinarayi Vijayan being subservient to mysterious powers such as the Chief Minister's Political Secretary, P Sasi and ADGP Ajith Kumar. Anvar’s resentment soon morphed into hate for the Pinarayi ideology, which he often terms as ‘Pinarayism’.

Unless joining with a new alliance, it is unknown for political turncoats to win elections all on their own. Anvar amassed a massive 19,760 votes for an independent candidate and was thus able to prove to naysayers that he still held sway in the Nilambur constituency. Perhaps if Anvar had not contested, there was even a possibility that the result in Nilambur would have come in favour of the LDF.

Aryadan Shoukath won by a majority of 11,077 votes, and the UDF have all good reasons to be proud of such a gigantic win in their old turf. Shoukath had to face a rebellious Anvar and a politically adept Swaraj. The chances of the vote splitting were high, as some even rooted for Swaraj to have the last laugh in Nilambur. Shoukath, who once faced a humiliating defeat in front of Anvar in Nilambur, had a herculean task to surpass this time. UDF can take all credit for the unity they maintained amidst strong politicking in the final stages from opposition quarters to create dent.

The main obstacle to Anvar's entry into the UDF was the roadblock put by Opposition Leader V.D. Satheesan. Anvar had once alleged corruption worth Rs. 150 crores against V.D. Satheesan in the assembly. Satheesan could have filed for defamation if the allegations were made by Anvar in a presser. It is rumoured that Satheesan saw Anvar’s entry into UDF also as an opportunity to settle scores. However, it seems like the decision has inadvertently helped UDF in Nilambur.

For LDF, the odds were against them in Nilambur, but they were not ready to yield. LDF fielded heavyweight Swaraj to prevent a cakewalk for Shoukath. Despite victory being a far-fetched dream, LDF was undaunted and performed well. The LDF candidate's 66,660 votes are no small feat considering the demographics of Nilambur. NDA candidate Mohan George received 8648 votes.