Three factors to India’s rescue; No need to fear even if countries including US fall into recession

Studies suggest that India has nothing to fear even if economic recession worsens across the world. According to national media reports, India need not fear even if the financial conditions in countries, including the US, turn critical.

According to experts, economic crises are least likely to hit India. The probability of economic recession in Asia is 20 to 25 per cent, whereas it is about 50 to 55 per cent in Europe.

Even in US, one of the global economic powerhouses, there is a 40 per cent chance for recession. Currently, Sri Lanka is going through its worst economic crisis in the history. According to surveys, there is an 85 per cent probability for recession in the island nation.

Two factors have proved to be advantageous for India in the regard. The stability in the agriculture, manufacturing and service sector have helped the country. In addition, Russian distribution also remains in favour of India.

According to unofficial figures, India has bought 66 billion barrels of oil from Russia since March this year. Apart from oil, India is also purchasing soya bean, coal and fertilizers from Russia at low prices. India gets Russian oil at a price about 36 per cent cheaper than the international price.

About half of the crude oil exported from Russian ports are purchased by Asian countries. Of which, India and China stands first in terms of imports. Currently, China depends on Russia, more than Saudi Arabia, for its oil imports.

Lately, Russia had become India's second largest oil supplier. India imports most of its oil from Iraq, followed by Saudi Arabia. India is the third largest importer of crude oil in the world. The country imports about 85 per cent of the oil for domestic needs.

After the invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission had imposed a sanction on Russian crude oil in order to pressurize the Russia economy, which is heavily dependent on oil exports. However, Russia had announced huge discounts to face the crisis.

Meantime, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opined that India will escape the global inflation trap. Stronger agricultural activity and a pick-up in manufacturing and services point to a high-growth trajectory over the medium-term, said the RBI. There are sparks in the wind that ignite the innate strength of the economy and set it on course to becoming the fastest economy in the world, added the bank.