Will AAP win in Modi’s land? Three challenges that await AAP in Gujarat

The country will witness two assembly elections in the months of November and December. But everybody’s attention will be on Gujarat. People’s attention is more focused on Gujarat because of the entry of AAP in Modi’s stronghold and the defenses that Gujarat BJP has made against the new party’s entry.

The BJP onslaught in Gujarat began in 1995 under Keshubhari Patel with Narendra Modi becoming CM in 2001 and continuing for four terms in office. After Narendra Modi went on to become the Prime Minister of India, his loyalists continued to retain the CM position till now.

Though BJP won the crucial election in Uttar Pradesh, Narendra Modi will go to any lengths to maintain a win in Gujarat before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. If the AAP manages to bring the BJP to its knees, then it will be a renewed strength for the opposition parties in the country. Every vote gained and lost by BJP, which has been in power for two decades in Gujarat, will have great significance in national politics.

In the 2017 assembly election, the BJP had won 99 seats out of the 182 seats and maintained its power in the legislative assembly. However, the Congress gaining 77 seats in the election surprised the BJP. This time, however, it will be a triangular contest with AAP also joining the fray.

The AAP strategy is to split the votes of Congress and to pose a threat to BJP strong areas by playing the Hindutva card.

In 2017 the BJP’s main threat came from three youths. But now the main threat is from the new gen party, AAP. The party had broken out from the confines of Delhi and won a surprise victory in Punjab. If the AAP can win Gujarat too then many changes will be seen at then national level. Kejriwal could even become the face of the opposition.

In the last assembly election, the BJP’s threat came from Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani, and Alpesh Thakur. However, the Congress could not maintain the gain they made in the last election. They could not retain Hardik Patel, who was the poster boy of the Congress in the last election. The Congress failed to use Jignesh Mevani effectively. The AAP is trying to attract the incumbency factor against BJP and also the votes gained by the Congress.

The AAP got power in Delhi and Punjab by defeating the Congress. BJP was not strong in Punjab. This is not the case in Gujarat. The three main challenges faced by AAP are

The AAP which could easily step into Punjab from Delhi, would find the going tough when it enters Gujarat. This is because the geography of Gujarat is vastly different from both Delhi and Punjab. It will be a challenge to AAP to reach every corner of Gujarat. The party itself is facing many organizational difficulties in the state.

AAP greatest challenge is that they are contesting in Modi’s Gujarat. As Gujarat is the home state of the Prime Minister the BJP has an emotional connect with it. It is impossible for them to lose it. Modi had replaced Vijay Rupani with Bhupendra Patel as CM last year to quell the incumbency in Modi’s home state. The move helped in solving the failures of Rupani’s governance during Covid and also helped the Patidar community sticking with the BJP.

When Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, he had given the reins of Gujarat to his loyalist Anandiben Patel. However, when it was found that her administration was not effective, Vijay Rupani was made CM in 2016. Modi just looked for loyalty in the first two CMs that he appointed.

The realization that the voters just won’t believe in Modi alone and vote made him change his decisions. This shows how much he cares for his state even when his focus is now in Delhi. Therefore, this election will see the might and resources being pumped in to the maximum