BJP's two lakh vote target adds heat to Vadakara's election ambiguity

Even in the peak of political upheaval, Vadakara never quavered on choosing their ideal candidate in elections. All guesses would go right with the constituency, with mostly the winner being the candidate from the communist party. And now, for the first time in history, Vadakara remain indecisive, with both parties holding considerable sway over voters.

K K Shailaja is the left party’s pick for Vadakara and she needs no introduction. Victory was a given considering her towering popularity and her basic comportment of being amicable with the people. Shailaja has proved her mettle while being the health minister of the state and it was testimony to her assembly election victory from the Mattannur constituency where she scripted a record win with a margin of over 60,963 votes.

However, things started getting confounded after Congress introduced Shafi Parambil in Vadakara as the ‘giant slayer’. Shafi though a hugely popular name among youth, might not fit into the exact class of Shailaja.Still, the big number of minority votes will call the shots in Vadakara, where the main election plank still revolves around the gruesome murder of T P Chandrashekaran, which took place back in 2012.

The total number of votes in Vadakara Lok Sabha constituency was 12,86,250 during the last election. If we add all the new votes and the lost votes, now it will be around 13 lakhs. More than 50 per cent of the voters are women. Muslim vote consists of 30 percent while four percent is for Christian votes. From Hindus, the main group is the Thiyya section (South Izhava) 40 per cent. Nair voted 18 per cent. SC/ST is eight per cent.

From this, Thiyya votes are traditionally CPM stronghold. LDF can expect 30 per cent of it for sure. A big chunk of votes from RMP will come to Shafi’s way. Shafi camp estimates that the majority of Muslim votes in Nadapuram, Koyilandy, Perambra and Kuttiyadi regions will help him do the coup in Vadakara.

Though Shafi and Shailaja are frontrunners in the fight, BJPs Praful Krishna will have a decisive role to play. The BJP candidate is likely to cross at least 1 lakh this time from the 80,128 votes they received last time. Praful is sure to attract a lot of votes from CPM voters which will put Vadakara in a major spotlight in the coming elections.