LS polls: Leak in Samastha, drop in Congress votes could lead to lesser majority for IUML

MALAPPURAM: The Indian Union Muslim League's (IUML) hope that the campaign ahead of the Citizenship Amendment Act will consolidate the minority votes has failed. The IUML assesses that in Ponnani and Malappuram, Samastha votes were leaked and there was also a drop in Congress votes. In 2019, the polling in Ponnani was 74.98 percent. This time it reduced to 69.04 percent. About two and a half percent of the shortfall was due to Samastha boycott. In comparison to last time, 30,000 votes may decrease.

It is estimated that Ponnani and Thrithala, where the Congress has roots, the party did not get the expected votes. Although Samastha votes were divided, Congress likely got SDPI and Jamaat votes correctly. The IUML's preliminary assessment is that it will get a majority between 50,000-80,000 in Ponnani.

Although there is no hope of victory, the CPM hopes to reduce the majority in Ponnani to around 25,000. The party's assessment is that the number of people abstained from voting due to their reluctance to vote on the CPM symbol despite their hostility towards the IUML.

Polling in Malappuram in 2019 is 75.49 percent. This time it is 72.9. IUML's assessment is that the loss of Congress votes is more than the the drop in Samastha votes. ET Mohammad Basheer is expected to have a majority of between 1 and 1.5 lakh. SDPI has nearly half a lakh cadre votes.

Team Samastha video

In the wake of the Samastha-Muslim League divide, the IUML was in a fix after a video titled 'things to remember before voting' circulated on social media in the name of 'Team Samastha Ponnani'. The video was based on speeches by Ponnani and Malappuram candidates Sadiqali Thangal, PK Kunhalikutty and PMA Salaam criticizing Samastha.