Hormuz blocked, Bab al-Mandab next? Iran and Houthis move to shut doors on global shipping

SANA'A: As geopolitical friction intensifies in the Middle East, the Bab al-Mandab Strait—the world’s fourth-largest shipping lane—has become a central flashpoint. Following Iran’s increased pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have issued a stark ultimatum: they have threatened to permanently close the Bab al-Mandab should international actors, specifically the United States, disrupt regional peace.

The Houthis have warned that any attempt to seize control of the strait would place international security at immediate risk. This is not a hollow threat; the region has already witnessed airstrikes on commercial vessels, leading several major shipping conglomerates to suspend traffic through these waters entirely.

The Bab al-Mandab is a vital maritime artery that acts as a bridge between East and West. Its geographical and economic significance cannot be overstated:

• Geographic Link: It connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, separating Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula from Djibouti and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa.
• Global Transit: It provides the primary gateway from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal.
• Energy Lifeline: Approximately 12% of all seaborne oil passes through this narrow passage. A closure would deal a catastrophic blow to a world already grappling with an energy crisis.

The ripple effects of a blockade would be felt far beyond the Middle East. If the strait is closed, the trade of oil and gas between Asia and Europe—which relies heavily on the Suez Canal route—would come to a standstill.

India, as a major energy importer and a key player in Asian trade, would be particularly vulnerable. The disruption of supply chains would likely lead to skyrocketing fuel prices and domestic economic instability.

Saudi Arabia has historically attempted to bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz by transporting oil via pipelines to the Red Sea coast. From there, the oil is exported to Asian markets through the Gulf of Aden.

If the Bab al-Mandab is closed, this "escape route" is severed. Saudi tankers would be forced into a logistical nightmare:

1. Move North: Ships would have to travel through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
2. The Long Detour: To reach Asia, they would then have to circumnavigate the entire southern tip of Africa (the Cape of Good Hope).

This alternative is not only incredibly time-consuming but also prohibitively expensive, threatening to destabilise the global economy and permanently alter maritime trade routes.