Ambalappuzha anxiety: CPM fears tactics may fail as 'Sudhakaran Factor' gains ground

AMBALAPPUZHA: The CPM is growing increasingly concerned about potentially losing the Ambalappuzha seat. A booth-level analysis of the latest figures suggests that securing a victory against G. Sudhakaran, who contested with UDF support, will be a significant challenge. The party estimates that the final outcome hinges on the distribution of BJP votes, predicting that the margin of victory or defeat will be razor-thin—likely less than 2,000 votes.

LDF candidate H. Salam recently stated that BJP votes in Ambalappuzha appear to have shifted toward the UDF. This aligns with Sudhakaran’s own campaign rhetoric, where he publicly claimed that even BJP members would be casting their votes for him. Furthermore, the CPM fears a split in the traditional Left vote and worries that a majority of neutral voters, along with a significant portion of the women's vote, may have swung in favour of Sudhakaran.

In stark contrast, the UDF remains highly optimistic. They view a victory in Ambalappuzha as a certainty, expecting a majority of 5,000 to 10,000 votes. Their internal estimates suggest that if current trends hold, that lead could even exceed 15,000 votes.

A loss in Ambalappuzha would be a massive embarrassment for the CPM. Despite taking rigorous internal measures to prevent cadre votes from leaking, a defeat under these circumstances would be a blow to the party’s prestige that they may find difficult to bear.