79.63% mystery: High turnout, fewer votes, Kerala in suspense

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With only one week remaining until the counting of votes for the assembly elections, the major political fronts are expressing concern over a noticeable dip in voter turnout. While the official counting is scheduled for May 4, an analysis of the polling data reveals a decline in the total number of votes cast compared to the previous election. Although the overall polling rate reached 79.63%, voter turnout actually decreased in nearly half of the state's constituencies.

The rival coalitions are interpreting these figures through very different lenses:

• UDF (United Democratic Front): Contends that high polling percentages in specific areas signal strong anti-government sentiment and a desire for change.
• Left Front (LDF): Views the overall decrease in total votes as a positive sign, suggesting a lack of "incumbency protest" and a likely continuity of the current regime.

A significant shift occurred following the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voters' list. Total votes dropped from 2.84 crore during the local body elections to 2.71 crore for this assembly election. This downward trend was observed across all 140 constituencies.

Specifically, 71 constituencies saw a marked decrease in participation, including high-profile seats such as:

• Thiruvananthapuram region: Kazhakoottam, Vattiyoorkavu, Thiruvananthapuram Central, Nemom, Aruvikkara, Parassala, Kattakada, Kovalam, and Neyyattinkara.
• Ernakulam region: Angamaly, Piravom, Paravur, Vypin, Thripunithura, Kothamangalam, and Ernakulam.

Despite the general decline in total numbers, one significant trend emerged: the percentage of women voters has increased, potentially becoming a decisive factor in the final results.

Protocols for opening of Strong Rooms

To ensure absolute transparency, the Election Commission has mandated strict protocols for the commencement of the counting process.

1. Preparation and Access

Between 13 and 16 counting tables will be arranged for each assembly constituency. The strong room, where the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) are securely stored, will be opened only in the presence of:

• The Candidates and their authorised representatives.
• The Returning Officer (RO) and Assistant Returning Officer (ARO).
• The Election Commission Observer.

Transparency Measure: The entire process of opening the strong room and transporting the machines to the counting hall will be videotaped, and continuous CCTV coverage will be maintained for all procedures.

2. Verification of the Control Units

Once the strong room is opened, the seals on each machine are meticulously verified:

• The control unit is taken out and placed on the counting table.
• Candidates and their agents are permitted to physically inspect the seals.
• Protocol for discrepancies: If any doubt arises regarding the integrity of a seal, the votes in that specific unit will not be counted, and the Election Commission must be notified immediately for further instruction.

3. Serial number and security check

The Returning Officer is responsible for verifying that the serial number of the control unit matches the records for the specific box it was stored in. This cross-verification includes checking the:

• Pink Paper Seal (used to secure the unit itself).
• Outer Strip Seal.
• Special Tag Seal.

4. Counting sequence

The official result is only accessed after all security checks are cleared.

• Postal Ballots First: In accordance with election rules, the counting of postal ballots will be conducted first.
• EVM Counting: Once the postal ballot counting is underway or completed, the result button on the EVM control units will be pressed to reveal the final tally for each machine.