Monsoon loses steam, Kerala faces 23% rainfall deficit

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Kerala is staring at a 23 per cent rainfall deficit as the southwest monsoon nears its withdrawal, with temperatures beginning to climb across the state. Punalur recorded a maximum temperature of over 35°C, while several other districts are also witnessing a rise in mercury.

The state has received little to no rainfall over the past week, despite the monsoon making an early start on June 1 and raising hopes of a good season. The El Nino phenomenon has been cited as a major factor behind the shortfall.

Between August 27 and September 2, Kerala recorded a 64 per cent deficit in rainfall. The state received only 27.4 mm of rain during the period, against the normal 76.2 mm.

Since the onset of the monsoon in June, Kerala was expected to receive 1,769.9 mm of rainfall. However, the actual rainfall recorded so far is only 1,369.6 mm.

Hopes rest on northeast monsoon

With the southwest monsoon set to withdraw after a disappointing season, attention is now turning to the northeast monsoon, which begins in October and continues until December.

While the possibility of extremely heavy rainfall is low, the northeast monsoon is expected to bring a reasonably good amount of rain. October is likely to receive the bulk of the rainfall. South and central Kerala generally receive more rain during the northeast monsoon.

Power demand rises as rains recede

The decline in rainfall has also pushed up electricity consumption in the state. Total power consumption crossed 94 million units on the previous day, compared with less than 80 million units during the active phase of the southwest monsoon.

Peak demand stood at 4,850 MW in recent days, against the expected level of below 4,000 MW. Electricity demand has also risen in other states, affecting availability and forcing Kerala to resort to intermittent power restrictions.

No severe drought likely

Despite the continuing influence of El Nino, a severe drought is unlikely, according to scientific researcher Dr A Rajagopal Kamath.

“The influence of El Nino is likely to continue for another 10 months, but there is no possibility of a severe drought,” he said.