Monsoon likely to be normal in Kerala, other states

monsoon

NEW DELHI: Monsoon is likely to be "near normal" this year in Kerala as well as other parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department said Monday.
Monsoon is likely to be 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA), a senior official of the IMD said.
LPA is the average of rainfall between 1951 and 2000, which is 89 cm. Anything between 90-95 per cent of LPA falls under the "below normal" category

This is the first phase of the forecast. The impact of El Niño being formed above Pacific ocean will be less. If Elnino intensifies, drought will also intensify but all this is not going to affect Kerala's normal monsoon. By June fist week, the status of of El Niño will become clear.
The Met department will declare on May 15 the date of onset of monsoon.